For obvious reasons, this is a really difficult match to predict, and it is even tougher to back either side to win with any degree of confidence. Both teams will believe that they can hurt the other in the final third, but we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw, which will not suit either manager at this stage of the season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Granada had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.63%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Granada win was 0-1 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
