Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elche win with a probability of 36.85%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elche win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.67%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Alaves win was 0-1 (11.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Elche would win this match.