Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 53.41%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 19.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.53%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (8.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Rayo Vallecano.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Alaves |
| 53.41% | 26.93% | 19.66% |
| Both teams to score 40.53% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.04% | 81.96% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.35% | 23.64% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.26% | 57.74% |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.08% | 46.92% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.57% | 82.42% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Alaves |
| 1-0 @ 15.99% 2-0 @ 11.53% 2-1 @ 8.73% 3-0 @ 5.54% 3-1 @ 4.2% 4-0 @ 2% 3-2 @ 1.59% 4-1 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.31% Total : 53.4% | 1-1 @ 12.1% 0-0 @ 11.09% 2-2 @ 3.3% Other @ 0.43% Total : 26.92% | 0-1 @ 8.4% 1-2 @ 4.58% 0-2 @ 3.18% 1-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.35% Total : 19.66% |