Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 61.85%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.08%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.