Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 28.74% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.48%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.