Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.