Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Chaves |
32.27% ( 0.03) | 27.14% ( -0) | 40.59% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 49.85% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.57% ( 0.03) | 55.43% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.38% ( 0.02) | 76.63% ( -0.02) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.11% ( 0.04) | 31.89% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.66% ( 0.04) | 68.34% ( -0.04) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.19% ( -0) | 26.81% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.9% ( -0) | 62.1% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.13% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 32.27% | 1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.14% | 0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.47% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.72% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.25% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.12% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.22% 0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 2.08% Total : 40.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |