Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Henan win with a probability of 43.1%. A win for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Henan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win was 0-1 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.