Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Henan win with a probability of 47.6%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 26.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Henan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Qingdao Hainiu win it was 0-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Henan in this match.