Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 34.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Casa Pia |
34.53% ( 0.03) | 25.59% ( 0.01) | 39.88% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 55.39% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.41% ( -0.04) | 48.58% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.29% ( -0.03) | 70.7% ( 0.03) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.95% ( 0) | 27.05% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.58% ( -0) | 62.41% ( 0) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.93% ( -0.04) | 24.07% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.65% ( -0.05) | 58.34% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.93% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.46% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.43% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.13% Other @ 3.05% Total : 34.53% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 9.27% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.63% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.6% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.68% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 39.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
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