Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 44.16%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 28.88% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.