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Vitoria de Guimaraes
Estoril
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25
Mar 18, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Chaves

Estoril
0 - 2
Chaves

FT(HT: 0-1)
Vitoria (31' pen.), Teixeira (71' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Estoril Praia and Chaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions
Last Game: Porto 3-2 Estoril
Friday, March 10 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Chaves

All competitions
Last Game: Chaves 2-0 Portimonense
Saturday, March 11 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.

Result
Estoril PraiaDrawChaves
35.56% (-0.791 -0.79)27.39% (-0.192 -0.19)37.05% (0.985 0.98)
Both teams to score 49.65% (0.577 0.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.05% (0.727 0.73)55.95% (-0.723 -0.72)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.96% (0.589 0.59)77.05% (-0.58500000000001 -0.59)
Estoril Praia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.01% (-0.13300000000001 -0.13)30% (0.137 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.89% (-0.16099999999999 -0.16)66.12% (0.164 0.16)
Chaves Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.92% (0.96000000000001 0.96)29.08% (-0.956 -0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.01% (1.169 1.17)64.99% (-1.164 -1.16)
Score Analysis
    Estoril Praia 35.55%
    Chaves 37.05%
    Draw 27.39%
Estoril PraiaDrawChaves
1-0 @ 10.5% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-1 @ 7.81% (-0.069 -0.07)
2-0 @ 6.32% (-0.227 -0.23)
3-1 @ 3.14% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.54% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 1.94% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 0.94% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 35.55%
1-1 @ 12.97% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 8.72% (-0.246 -0.25)
2-2 @ 4.82% (0.085 0.09)
Other @ 0.88%
Total : 27.39%
0-1 @ 10.77% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.01% (0.17 0.17)
0-2 @ 6.65% (0.166 0.17)
1-3 @ 3.3% (0.155 0.16)
0-3 @ 2.74% (0.139 0.14)
2-3 @ 1.99% (0.086 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.02% (0.073 0.07)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 37.05%

How you voted: Estoril vs Chaves

Estoril Praia
66.7%
Draw
33.3%
Chaves
0.0%
9
Head to Head
Oct 1, 2022 6pm
Chaves
1-1
Estoril
Hernandez (39')
Ponck (23')
Martins (76')
Feb 25, 2018 4pm
Chaves
2-0
Estoril
William (17'), Pereira (84')
Pereira (29'), Ferreira (83'), Eustaquio (88')

Rodrigues (32'), Kyriakou (78'), Ribeiro (80')
Sep 23, 2017 4pm
Estoril
0-2
Chaves

Lucao (61'), Evangelista (90')
Bressan (39'), Djavan (68')
May 8, 2017 8pm
Estoril
2-1
Chaves
Claro (72'), Mattheus (87')
Afonso (21'), Mattheus (81'), Graca (92')
Bressan (23')
Filipe (83')
Dec 22, 2016 9pm
Chaves
1-0
Estoril
Martins (68')
Paulinho (18'), Assis (42')

Dankler (25'), Matheus (59')