Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Cercle Brugge had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Cercle Brugge win was 2-1 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.