Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 38.18%. A win for Genk had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Genk win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.