Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 51.46%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 25.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 2-1 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.