Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 48.97%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.31%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.