Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 61.23%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 17.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Sint-Truiden win it was 0-1 (4.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.