Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 59.23%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Standard Liege had a probability of 19.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 1-0 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Standard Liege win it was 1-2 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.