Primeira Liga | Gameweek 32

May 4, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Chaves
0 - 3
Porto

Essugo (24'), Pius (45+4')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Conceicao (27'), Evanilson (45+1'), Taremi (73' pen.)
Correia (60'), Fernandes (67'), Fernandes (88'), Eustaquio (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions

Last Game: Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves
Saturday, April 27 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 2-2 Sporting Lisbon
Sunday, April 28 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 72.74%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 10.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.46%) and 0-3 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Chaves	Draw	Porto
10.42% ( 0.13)	16.84% ( 0.33)	72.74% ( -0.47)

Both teams to score 48.32% (

-0.73)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.1% (

-1.21)

39.9% (

1.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.74% (

-1.27)

62.26% (

1.27)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.44% (

-0.56)

46.56% (

0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.85% (

-0.43)

82.15% (

0.43)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.42% (

-0.42)

9.58% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.96% (

-0.99)

32.04% (

0.99)

Score Analysis

Chaves 10.42%

Porto 72.73%

Draw 16.84%

Chaves	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.74% Total : 10.42%	1-1 @ 8% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.8% Total : 16.84%	0-2 @ 12.26% ( 0.23) 0-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.39) 0-3 @ 9.59% ( 0) 1-2 @ 9.38% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 7.33% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 5.63% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 4.3% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.09) 0-5 @ 2.64% ( -0.1) 1-5 @ 2.02% ( -0.11) 2-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.08) 0-6 @ 1.03% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.64% Total : 72.73%