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Vitoria de Guimaraes
Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 3, 2024 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques
Porto

Guimaraes
0 - 1
Porto


Mendes (58'), Borevkovic (71'), Cesar (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Pepe (52')
Sanchez (45+8'), Otavio (56'), Wendell (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Taca de Portugal clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Estoril 1-0 Porto
Saturday, March 30 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-2 Porto

This first leg encounter will likely be a tight affair with both sides looking to be cautious ahead of the return leg. Porto, the favorites, will control possession but Vitoria will aim for counter-attacks. We expect a cagey affair but Porto have enough quality to edge it. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 43.26%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.

Result
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawPorto
30.76% (0.065000000000001 0.07) 25.98% (-0.348 -0.35) 43.26% (0.285 0.29)
Both teams to score 52.87% (1.123 1.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.71% (1.439 1.44)51.29% (-1.435 -1.44)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.88% (1.245 1.25)73.12% (-1.241 -1.24)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.17% (0.78100000000001 0.78)30.83% (-0.776 -0.78)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.9% (0.91 0.91)67.1% (-0.90600000000001 -0.91)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.43% (0.77200000000001 0.77)23.57% (-0.769 -0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.37% (1.102 1.1)57.64% (-1.099 -1.1)
Score Analysis
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 30.76%
    Porto 43.25%
    Draw 25.98%
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawPorto
1-0 @ 8.55% (-0.311 -0.31)
2-1 @ 7.27% (0.06 0.06)
2-0 @ 5.03% (-0.072 -0.07)
3-1 @ 2.85% (0.083 0.08)
3-2 @ 2.06% (0.105 0.11)
3-0 @ 1.97% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 30.76%
1-1 @ 12.35% (-0.17 -0.17)
0-0 @ 7.27% (-0.427 -0.43)
2-2 @ 5.25% (0.159 0.16)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.072 0.07)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.98%
0-1 @ 10.5% (-0.37 -0.37)
1-2 @ 8.93% (0.083 0.08)
0-2 @ 7.59% (-0.092 -0.09)
1-3 @ 4.3% (0.135 0.14)
0-3 @ 3.66% (0.037 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.53% (0.131 0.13)
1-4 @ 1.55% (0.082 0.08)
0-4 @ 1.32% (0.043 0.04)
2-4 @ 0.91% (0.066 0.07)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 43.25%

How you voted: Guimaraes vs Porto

Vitoria de Guimaraes
16.1%
Draw
23.2%
Porto
60.7%
56
Head to Head
Nov 11, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 11
Guimaraes
1-2
Porto
Silva (17')
Silva (27'), Silva (72'), Silva (90+5')
Sanusi (39'), Conceicao (59')
Conceicao (26'), Galeno (85'), Sanchez (90')
May 27, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 34
Porto
3-0
Guimaraes
Taremi (8'), Otavio (32'), Evanilson (39')
Otavio (72'), Uribe (87')

Silva (40'), Freitas (44'), Tounkara (62'), Silva (71'), Sa (72'), Indio (89')
Handel (2')
Jan 21, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 17
Guimaraes
0-1
Porto
Mario (45+2')
Apr 10, 2022 6pm
Gameweek 29
Guimaraes
0-1
Porto

Estupinan (12'), Janvier (73'), Esteves (88'), Duarte (90+8'), Rochinha (90+8')
Estupinan (80')
Taremi (36' pen.)
Otavio (30'), Costa (90+2')
Nov 28, 2021 8.30pm
Gameweek 12
Porto
2-1
Guimaraes
Diaz (39'), Evanilson (60')
Sanusi (34'), Oliveira (45+4'), Wendell (80')
Edwards (36' pen.)
Amaro (11'), Handel (42'), Mumin (45+3'), Sacko (79'), Semedo (85')
Mumin (53')
rhs 2.0
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