Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24

Mar 3, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
5 - 0
Benfica

Galeno (20', 44'), Wendell (55'), Pepe (75'), Loader (90')
Conceicao (12'), Gonzalez (79')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Morato (32'), Otamendi (52')
Otamendi (61')

The Match

Match Report

Galeno scores twice as Porto hammer bitter rivals Benfica 5-0 at the Estadio do Dragao, recording their joint-biggest ever victory in O Classico.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Santa Clara 1-2 Porto
Thursday, February 29 at 4pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Benfica
Thursday, February 29 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 44.46%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Benfica
44.46% ( -0.81)	24.46% ( 0.69)	31.07% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 58.08% (

-2.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.43% (

-3.15)

44.57% (

3.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.06% (

-3.12)

66.94% (

3.12)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.83% (

-1.62)

20.17% (

1.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.54% (

-2.66)

52.46% (

2.67)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.75% (

-1.47)

27.25% (

1.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.32% (

-1.95)

62.68% (

1.96)

Score Analysis

Porto 44.46%

Benfica 31.07%

Draw 24.46%

Porto	Draw	Benfica
2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.74) 2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.28) 3-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.33) 4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.22) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.9% Total : 44.46%	1-1 @ 11.44% ( 0.52) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.28) 0-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.72) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.46%	1-2 @ 7.44% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.66) 0-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.25) 1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.24) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.99% Total : 31.07%