Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Feb 21, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
1 - 0
Arsenal

(1-1 on aggregate)

Galeno (90+4')
Conceicao (52'), Conceicao (52'), Gonzalez (62')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Rice (2'), Kiwior (57'), Havertz (61')

Reaction

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on February 22, 2024

Mikel Arteta: 'Arsenal lacked purpose in Porto defeat'

Mikel Arteta bemoans Arsenal's lack of purpose in their 1-0 Champions League last-16 first-leg loss to Porto, where the Gunners failed to have one shot on target.

Feb 22, 07:30

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Porto 2-0 Estrela Amadora
Saturday, February 17 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arsenal

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Burnley 0-5 Arsenal
Saturday, February 17 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Porto in this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Arsenal
43.05%	25.52% ( 0)	31.43%

Both teams to score 54.65% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.89% (

49.11% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.81% (

71.18% (

-0)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.27% (

22.73% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.6% (

56.4% (

-0)

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.72%

29.27%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.76% (

65.23% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Porto 43.05%

Arsenal 31.43%

Draw 25.51%

Porto	Draw	Arsenal
1-0 @ 9.86% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.97% 2-0 @ 7.3% 3-1 @ 4.43% 3-0 @ 3.61% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.72% 4-1 @ 1.64% 4-0 @ 1.34% 4-2 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.17% Total : 43.05%	1-1 @ 12.1% 0-0 @ 6.65% 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.51%	0-1 @ 8.17% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.44% 0-2 @ 5.02% 1-3 @ 3.05% 2-3 @ 2.26% 0-3 @ 2.06% 1-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.5% Total : 31.43%