Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Puskas Academy win with a probability of 55.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Varda SE had a probability of 21.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Puskas Academy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Varda SE win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Puskas Academy would win this match.