Primeira Liga | Gameweek 32

May 15, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Estoril
2 - 0
Arouca

Carvalho (68'), Cassiano (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Estoril Praia and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Last Game: Boavista 1-0 Estoril
Saturday, May 6 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 0-1 Porto
Monday, May 8 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.

Result
Estoril Praia	Draw	Arouca
41.54% ( -0.61)	27.48% ( 0.13)	30.98% ( 0.48)

Both teams to score 48.4% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.94% (

-0.31)

57.06% (

0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.05% (

-0.25)

77.94% (

0.25)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.95% (

-0.47)

27.05% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.58% (

-0.62)

62.42% (

0.62)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.35% (

0.19)

33.65% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.7% (

0.21)

70.3% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Estoril Praia 41.54%

Arouca 30.98%

Draw 27.48%

Estoril Praia	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 11.9% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.47% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.98% Total : 41.54%	1-1 @ 12.96% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.48%	0-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 7.06% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0) Other @ 2.4% Total : 30.98%