Polish Ekstraklasa | Gameweek 31
May 4, 2024 at 7pm UK
Stadion MOSiR

Stal Mielec
3 - 2
Jagiellonia

Shkurin (35'), Matras (48'), Gerstenstein (54')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Nene (12'), Pululu (75')
Skrzypczak (63'), Nguiamba (74')
Coverage of the Polish Ekstraklasa clash between Stal Mielec and Jagiellonia Bialystok.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stal Mielec

All competitions
Last Game: Stal Mielec 1-3 Legia
Sunday, April 28 at 2pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions
Last Game: Jagiellonia 2-2 Szczecin
Friday, April 26 at 7.30pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Stal Mielec had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Stal Mielec win was 2-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.

Result
Stal MielecDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
27.07% (-0.299 -0.3)23.44% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)49.48% (0.352 0.35)
Both teams to score 58.85% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.67% (0.011999999999993 0.01)42.33% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.26% (0.011000000000003 0.01)64.73% (-0.012 -0.01)
Stal Mielec Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.13% (-0.21199999999999 -0.21)28.87% (0.212 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.26% (-0.265 -0.27)64.74% (0.265 0.27)
Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.74% (0.13800000000001 0.14)17.25% (-0.138 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.43% (0.24 0.24)47.57% (-0.24 -0.24)
Score Analysis
    Stal Mielec 27.07%
    Jagiellonia Bialystok 49.48%
    Draw 23.44%
Stal MielecDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
2-1 @ 6.75% (-0.054 -0.05)
1-0 @ 6.19% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-0 @ 3.84% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-1 @ 2.8% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.46% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.59% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 27.07%
1-1 @ 10.87% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.93% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.44% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 23.44%
1-2 @ 9.55% (0.025 0.03)
0-1 @ 8.75% (0.035 0.04)
0-2 @ 7.69% (0.065 0.07)
1-3 @ 5.6% (0.04 0.04)
0-3 @ 4.5% (0.058 0.06)
2-3 @ 3.48% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 2.46% (0.028 0.03)
0-4 @ 1.98% (0.035 0.04)
2-4 @ 1.53% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.95%
Total : 49.48%

Head to Head
Nov 3, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 14
Jagiellonia
4-0
Stal Mielec
Normann Hansen (19'), Wdowik (23' pen., 83'), Matras (79' og.)
Marczuk (50')

Santos (58'), Esselink (82')