Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Warta Poznan win with a probability of 45.89%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Stal Mielec had a probability of 26.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Warta Poznan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Stal Mielec win it was 0-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Warta Poznan would win this match.