Marseille's recent Conference League exertions and sticky patch of league form will play right into Brest's hands, but the hosts have very little to fight for in the final months of the season.
Sampaoli possesses plenty of talented options on the bench ready to make an impact, and with a penchant for victories away from home, Les Olympiens can use their wealth of firepower to edge a tight contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.34%. A win for Brest had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
