UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg

Feb 17, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
3 - 1
Qarabag FK

(Marseille win 6-1 on aggregate)

Milik (41', 44'), Payet (90+2')
Under (36'), Peres (66'), Dieng (77')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Kady (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Marseille and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 15.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Qarabag FK
59.87%	24.6%	15.53%

Both teams to score 39.54%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.24%

59.75%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.95%

80.05%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.08%

19.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.94%

52.05%

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.37%

50.62%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.91%

85.08%

Score Analysis

Marseille 59.86%

Qarabag FK 15.53%

Draw 24.59%

Marseille	Draw	Qarabag FK
1-0 @ 16.26% 2-0 @ 13.12% 2-1 @ 8.94% 3-0 @ 7.06% 3-1 @ 4.81% 4-0 @ 2.85% 4-1 @ 1.94% 3-2 @ 1.64% 5-0 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.33% Total : 59.86%	1-1 @ 11.07% 0-0 @ 10.08% 2-2 @ 3.04% Other @ 0.4% Total : 24.59%	0-1 @ 6.86% 1-2 @ 3.77% 0-2 @ 2.34% Other @ 2.56% Total : 15.53%

How you voted: Marseille vs Qarabag FK

Marseille

85.2%

Draw

7.4%

Qarabag FK