Europa Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 17, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Marseille3 - 1Qarabag FK
We said: Marseille 2-0 Qarabag FK
We see Marseille as a far stronger side than their Azerbaijani visitors, and, with home advantage and given their recent form, we do not expect them to face many problems in their bid to take a lead into the second leg. Should, at least, a combination of them be deployed, the likes of Payet, Milik and Bakambu boast the ability to put the relative European minnows to the sword in France. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 15.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Qarabag FK |
| 59.87% | 24.6% | 15.53% |
| Both teams to score 39.54% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
