Without the effervescent Payet leading the charge, Marseille's chances of a goal-laden showing have taken a major hit, while the midweek fatigue could certainly work against them as well.
However, if Lorient are to sacrifice an attacker for a more defensively-minded setup, breaking down the Olympiens backline will be a tall order for Pelissier's side, who may fall just short in Marseille's most winnable game left.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 48.53%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 27.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.45%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Lorient win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
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