Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 83.29%. A draw had a probability of 11.9% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 4.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.25%) and 1-0 (10.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.59%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (2.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.