African Nations Championship | Group Stage

Jan 21, 2023 at 7pm UK

Libya
3 - 1
Ethiopia

Abu Arqoub (44'), Abbasi (50'), Saltou (78')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Panomo (39' pen.)

Coverage of the African Nations Championship Group Stage clash between Libya and Ethiopia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Libya

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Mozambique 3-2 Libya
Tuesday, January 17 at 4pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	3	7
2	Libya	3	3	6
3	Rwanda	3	0	4
4	Equatorial Guinea	3	-6	0

Ethiopia

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Ethiopia
Tuesday, January 17 at 7pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Libya had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.8%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Libya win was 1-0 (11.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
Libya	Draw	Ethiopia
34.19% ( -1.94)	28.45% ( -0.16)	37.35% ( 2.11)

Both teams to score 46.37% (

0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.03% (

0.52)

59.97% (

-0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.78% (

0.39)

80.21% (

-0.39)

Libya Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.08% (

-1)

32.92% (

1.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.5% (

-1.13)

69.49% (

1.13)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.12% (

1.6)

30.88% (

-1.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.83% (

1.84)

67.17% (

-1.84)

Score Analysis

Libya 34.19%

Ethiopia 37.35%

Draw 28.45%

Libya	Draw	Ethiopia
1-0 @ 11.29% ( -0.54) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.49) 3-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.25) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.59% Total : 34.19%	1-1 @ 13.27% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.45%	0-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.31) 0-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.47) 1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.25) 0-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.29) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.1) Other @ 3.09% Total : 37.35%