African Nations Championship | Group Stage

Jan 17, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stade Mustapha Tchaker

Algeria
1 - 0
Ethiopia

Mahious (52')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's African Nations Championship clash between Algeria and Ethiopia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Algeria

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Libya
Friday, January 13 at 7pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	3	3	7
2	Equatorial Guinea	3	1	6
3	Sierra Leone	3	-1	2
4	Algeria	3	-3	1

Ethiopia

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique
Saturday, January 14 at 1pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 69.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 10.57%.

The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.56%) and 3-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.08%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Algeria in this match.

Result
Algeria	Draw	Ethiopia
69.78% ( 0.17)	19.65% ( -0.2)	10.57% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 39.87% (

0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.38% (

0.85)

51.62% (

-0.85)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.59% (

0.74)

73.41% (

-0.73)

Algeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.32% (

0.32)

13.68% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.1% (

0.63)

40.9% (

-0.63)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.19% (

0.59)

53.8% (

-0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.85% (

0.36)

87.15% (

-0.36)

Score Analysis

Algeria 69.78%

Ethiopia 10.57%

Draw 19.65%

Algeria	Draw	Ethiopia
1-0 @ 14.64% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 14.56% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.26% Total : 69.78%	1-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.41% Total : 19.65%	0-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.41% ( 0) Other @ 1.78% Total : 10.57%