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Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 5, 2022 at 2pm UK
Bingu National Stadium
Ethiopia national football team

Malawi
2 - 1
Ethiopia

Mhango (10' pen., 34' pen.)
Sanudi (39'), Mhone (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Nasir Ahmed (68' pen.)
Debebe (33'), Baye (36')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Malawi and Ethiopia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

Last Six:
Last Game: Guinea 1-0 Malawi
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Next Game: Egypt vs. Malawi
Sunday, September 18 at 11pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Ethiopia

Last Six:
Last Game: Ethiopia 2-0 Egypt
Thursday, June 9 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Next Game: Guinea vs. Ethiopia
Sunday, September 18 at 11pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 22.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malawi would win this match.

Result
MalawiDrawEthiopia
49.06% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)28.07% (0.013999999999999 0.01)22.88% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 41.45% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.85% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)63.15% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.43% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)82.57% (0.026999999999987 0.03)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.96% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)26.04% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.92% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)61.08% (0.032000000000004 0.03)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.04% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)43.96% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.91% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)80.09% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Malawi 49.05%
    Ethiopia 22.88%
    Draw 28.06%
MalawiDrawEthiopia
1-0 @ 15.4% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 10.36%
2-1 @ 8.52% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.65% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.82% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 1.57% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.56% (-0.002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.29% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 49.05%
1-1 @ 12.66% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 11.44% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.5% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 28.06%
0-1 @ 9.41% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
1-2 @ 5.2% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.87% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.002 -0)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 0.96% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 22.88%

How you voted: Malawi vs Ethiopia

Malawi
61.1%
Draw
11.1%
Ethiopia
27.8%
18
Head to Head
Mar 17, 2021 12pm
Ethiopia
4-0
Malawi
Mohammed (16'), Kebede (45'), Dagnachew (56'), Nassir (71')