Malawi vs Ethiopia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 22.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malawi would win this match.