Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 54.98%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 24.19% and a draw had a probability of 20.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.95%) and 1-3 (6.66%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (6.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.