Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 51.57%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 25.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Mineiro win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-2 (6.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.