Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 45.46%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 29.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (7.62%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 1-0 (7.57%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.