Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 42.99%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 30.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (9.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.