Liga MX
Dec 7, 2025 at 1am UK
 

TolucaToluca
3-2
MonterreyMonterrey

Pereira (19'), Paulinho (43'), Helinho (51' pen.)
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ramos (58' pen.), de la Rosa (75')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Monterrey.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 2-1 Tigres (9-8 pen.)
Monday, December 15 at 1am in Liga MX

Monterrey

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 3-2 Monterrey
Sunday, December 7 at 1am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 58.97%. A win for Monterrey had a probability of 20.9% and a draw had a probability of 20.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.74%) and 1-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Monterrey win was 1-2 (5.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
TolucaDrawMonterrey
58.97%20.13%20.9%
Both teams to score 63.23%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.74%33.26%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.98%55.02%
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.85%11.15%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.39%35.61%
Monterrey Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.16%28.84%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.3%64.7%
Score Analysis
    Toluca 58.97%
    Monterrey 20.9%
    Draw 20.13%
TolucaDrawMonterrey
2-1 @ 9.62%
2-0 @ 7.74%
1-0 @ 7.05%
3-1 @ 7.04%
3-0 @ 5.66%
3-2 @ 4.37%
4-1 @ 3.86%
4-0 @ 3.1%
4-2 @ 2.4%
5-1 @ 1.69%
5-0 @ 1.36%
5-2 @ 1.05%
4-3 @ 0.99%
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 58.97%
1-1 @ 8.77%
2-2 @ 5.98%
0-0 @ 3.22%
3-3 @ 1.81%
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 20.13%
1-2 @ 5.45%
0-1 @ 4%
0-2 @ 2.49%
2-3 @ 2.48%
1-3 @ 2.26%
0-3 @ 1.03%
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 20.9%

Head to Head
Dec 4, 2025 3.10am
Monterrey
1-0
Toluca
Berterame (39')
Berterame (80')

Helinho (59'), Barbosa (74'), Gallardo (89')
Sep 25, 2025 3am
Toluca
6-2
Monterrey
May 11, 2025 2am
Toluca
2-1
Monterrey
Vega (30', 30'), Paulinho (68', 68')
Barbosa (12'), Barbosa (12'), Paulinho (45+1'), Paulinho (45+1'), Pereira (80'), Pereira (80')
Helinho (21'), Helinho (21'), Briseno (32'), Briseno (32')
De la Rosa (48', 48')
Chavez (19'), Chavez (19'), Medina (41'), Medina (41'), de la Rosa (48'), de la Rosa (48')
May 8, 2025 2am
Monterrey
3-2
Toluca
Deossa (44', 44'), Canales (50', 50'), Berterame (69', 69')
Deossa (56'), Deossa (56'), Jareth Fimbres Ochoa (82'), Jareth Fimbres Ochoa (82')
Guzman (17' og., 17'), Garcia (82', 82')
Ruiz (56'), Ruiz (56'), Paulinho (90+3'), Paulinho (90+3'), Paulinho (90+3'), Paulinho (90+3')
Jan 19, 2025 1am
gameweek 2
Toluca
1-1
Monterrey
Helinho (11', 11')
Barbosa (83'), Barbosa (83')
Canales (47', 47')
Moreno (66'), Moreno (66')