Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 53.98%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 23.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-2 (6.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.