Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 15.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.79%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Plaza Colonia
60.66% ( -0.19)	23.69% ( 0.34)	15.64% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 41.99% (

-1.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.43% (

-1.44)

56.56% (

1.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.45% (

-1.17)

77.54% (

1.17)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.6% (

-0.6)

18.4% (

0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.45% (

-1.02)

49.54% (

1.02)

Plaza Colonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.45% (

-1.07)

48.54% (

1.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.37% (

-0.79)

83.63% (

0.79)

Score Analysis

Penarol 60.65%

Plaza Colonia 15.64%

Draw 23.68%

Penarol	Draw	Plaza Colonia
1-0 @ 15.11% ( 0.53) 2-0 @ 12.79% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.12) 5-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.87% Total : 60.65%	1-1 @ 10.92% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 8.93% ( 0.48) 2-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.49% Total : 23.68%	0-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.96% Total : 15.64%