Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 44.91%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 26.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.04%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.