Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 11, 2025 at 3am UK
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo
Cerro Largo logo

U. Catolica
3 - 1
Cerro Largo

Londono (18', 18'), Diaz (45+1', 45+1', 90+4', 90+4')
Cacciabue (7'), Cacciabue (7'), Diaz (56'), Diaz (56'), Palacios (90+3'), Palacios (90+3')
FT(HT: 4-0)
Ferrares (75', 75')
Gianoli (51'), Gianoli (51'), Ferrares (59'), Ferrares (59'), Correa (62'), Correa (62')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Universidad Catolica and Cerro Largo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: Vitoria 1-1 U. Catolica
Thursday, April 3 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
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Cerro Largo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Cerro Largo 0-4 Nacional
Sunday, April 6 at 9.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 67.74%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 11.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.2%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.

Result
Universidad CatolicaDrawCerro Largo
67.74% (0.738 0.74)20.62% (-0.134 -0.13)11.63% (-0.605 -0.61)
Both teams to score 40.46% (-1.345 -1.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.17% (-0.811 -0.81)52.83% (0.811 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.55% (-0.697 -0.7)74.45% (0.69499999999999 0.69)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.3% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)14.69% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.13% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)42.87% (0.057000000000002 0.06)
Cerro Largo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
47.43% (-1.559 -1.56)52.57% (1.556 1.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.62% (-1.026 -1.03)86.37% (1.024 1.02)
Score Analysis
    Universidad Catolica 67.74%
    Cerro Largo 11.63%
    Draw 20.62%
Universidad CatolicaDrawCerro Largo
1-0 @ 14.81% (0.45 0.45)
2-0 @ 14.2% (0.42 0.42)
2-1 @ 9.13% (-0.145 -0.15)
3-0 @ 9.08% (0.258 0.26)
3-1 @ 5.84% (-0.098999999999999 -0.1)
4-0 @ 4.35% (0.12 0.12)
4-1 @ 2.8% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.121 -0.12)
5-0 @ 1.67% (0.044 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.07% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 67.74%
1-1 @ 9.53% (-0.141 -0.14)
0-0 @ 7.72% (0.244 0.24)
2-2 @ 2.94% (-0.186 -0.19)
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 20.62%
0-1 @ 4.97% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07)
1-2 @ 3.06% (-0.19 -0.19)
0-2 @ 1.6% (-0.097 -0.1)
Other @ 2%
Total : 11.63%