Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 17, 2024 at 3am UK

Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa

U. Catolica
0 - 0
Alianza Petrolera

Martinez (35')
Nieto (44'), Nieto (44'), Cifuente (70'), Cifuente (70'), Rodriguez (90+3'), Martinez (90+3'), Rodriguez (90+3'), Martinez (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Franco (11'), Franco (11'), Renteria (13'), Renteria (13'), Saldana (53'), Saldana (53'), Luigi Grazziani Serrano (79'), Grazziani (79'), Colpa (90+4'), Colpa (90+4')
Simarra Valdez (30'), Simarra (30')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Universidad Catolica and Alianza Petrolera.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

Last Game: U. Catolica 4-0 Union La Calera
Friday, May 10 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana

Alianza Petrolera

Last Game: Alianza Petrolera 0-3 Cruzeiro
Wednesday, May 8 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 73.97%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Alianza Petrolera had a probability of 9.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.96%) and 3-0 (10.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for an Alianza Petrolera win it was 0-1 (3.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.

Result
Universidad Catolica	Draw	Alianza Petrolera
73.97% ( 0.26)	16.8% ( -0.34)	9.22% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 43.65% (

1.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.51% (

1.74)

43.49% (

-1.74)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.11% (

1.69)

65.88% (

-1.69)

Universidad Catolica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.79% (

0.53)

10.2% (

-0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.5% (

1.19)

33.49% (

-1.2)

Alianza Petrolera Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.61% (

1.3)

51.38% (

-1.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.4% (

0.85)

85.6% (

-0.85)

Score Analysis

Universidad Catolica 73.96%

Alianza Petrolera 9.22%

Draw 16.8%

Universidad Catolica	Draw	Alianza Petrolera
2-0 @ 13.65% ( -0.43) 1-0 @ 11.96% ( -0.66) 3-0 @ 10.39% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.09% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.2) 4-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.2) 5-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.15) 5-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.11) 6-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.92% Total : 73.96%	1-1 @ 7.97% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.41) 2-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.56% Total : 16.8%	0-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 1.91% Total : 9.22%