Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 63.45%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Union La Calera had a probability of 15.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for a Union La Calera win it was 0-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.