Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
Apr 24, 2024 at 3am UK
Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Alianza Petrolera
1 - 3
U. Catolica

Batalla (8', 8')
Meza (22'), Meza (22'), Camilo Franco Ulloa (29'), Franco (29')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Camilo Franco Ulloa (56' og.), Franco (56' og.), Cifuente (68', 68'), Diaz (78', 78')
Vallecilla (38'), Vallecilla (38'), Loor (45+2'), Loor (45+2'), Grillo (50'), Grillo (50')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Alianza Petrolera and Universidad Catolica.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alianza Petrolera

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Last Game: Cruzeiro 3-3 Alianza Petrolera
Friday, April 12 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: Union La Calera 0-1 U. Catolica
Thursday, April 11 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Alianza Petrolera had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Alianza Petrolera win was 1-0 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.

Result
Alianza PetroleraDrawUniversidad Catolica
29.48% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)26.87% (0.012999999999998 0.01)43.65% (0.071999999999996 0.07)
Both teams to score 49.52% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.68% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)55.31% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.47% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)76.53% (0.069000000000003 0.07)
Alianza Petrolera Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.16% (-0.10899999999999 -0.11)33.84% (0.109 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.49% (-0.116 -0.12)70.5% (0.117 0.12)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.84% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)25.15% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.13% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)59.87% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Score Analysis
    Alianza Petrolera 29.48%
    Universidad Catolica 43.64%
    Draw 26.86%
Alianza PetroleraDrawUniversidad Catolica
1-0 @ 9.22% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-1 @ 6.9% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-0 @ 5% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.49% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.81% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.72% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 29.48%
1-1 @ 12.72%
0-0 @ 8.51% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.76% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 26.86%
0-1 @ 11.74% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-2 @ 8.78% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-2 @ 8.11% (0.026 0.03)
1-3 @ 4.04%
0-3 @ 3.73% (0.012 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.19% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.4% (0.0010000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 1.29% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 43.64%