Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 42.06%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 29.07% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.38%) and 1-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (10.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.