Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 31.8% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Danubio win was 0-1 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%).