Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 40.59%. A draw had a probability of 32.4% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 27.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.68%) and 2-1 (6.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.33%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 16.3% likelihood.