Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 41.68%. A draw had a probability of 30.3% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 28.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (7.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.