Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 35.9%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Fenix win was 0-1 (11.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.